The NFL season is right around the corner and while there are a ton of good research tools to help you make winning NFL picks, using NFL free picks is a good place to start. You can see if industry experts are on some of the same plays you are, which can bolster your research on the way to cashing a winning ticket.
Not All Free Picks Are The Same
With the NFL season approaching, everyone turns into a professional sports handicapper. The way you can decipher between the pros and the Joes are pretty easy though. Make sure you’re following the experts on their own sites, or on sites they appear on. It’s hard to tell who is a pro and who is a Joe, but if their picks are not documented with positive results, that’s a good place to start.
Another way to get the best free picks is the join Twitter. A lot of good handicappers release their NFL Free Picks over Twitter, it’s a great way to get good information quickly and efficiently, while easily being able to tell which picks are the best ones for you.
Don’t Fall Into the Echo Chamber
Being contrarian still has its place in NFL handicapping. There are going to be weeks where there are several sharps and squares on the same side. It’s either going to hit big or lose big and it seems like most of the time is loses.
It is almost always a favorite too. For instance, I can remember last season in Week 13 where the Eagles visited the Patriots in Foxborough. Everyone was on the Patriots. The public was laying heavily while a majority of the sharps were too. Everyone was touting the Patriots as -9 ½ favorites. The Pats were coming off their first loss of the season to the Broncos in overtime in Denver.
Everyone and their mother was predicting a big Tom Brady and company comeback win at home, against a Philly team that was coming into that game 4-7 and losers of three straight games.
This was also despite the fact that Rob Gronkowski was out that game and it was after Julian Edelman got hurt as well.
The Eagles ended up shocking the Patriots 35-28 behind big performances from Darren Sproles, the Eagles’ defense and Sam Bradford. This was one of the more shocking games of the 2015 season and it is a nice reminder that anything is possible in the NFL. If there are a lot of people on one side of a game, it might be by design by the sportsbooks sometimes.
Don’t Tail Blindly
This could be included in the section on not all NFL Free Picks are created equal, but I thought it important enough to close on it. Not doing your own research and handicapping while making a play in the NFL and just blindly tailing NFL Free Picks is not a winning formula.
Most professional handicappers don’t release their best plays for the public anyway, so even if you are following an expert, if you don’t agree with their assessment, you have two options. Follow blindly and maybe you’ll win or maybe you won’t. Or, do some research yourself and see what you come up with after that’s through. It may give you a better idea on why that sharp took that play, or why you should stay away from it.
Even the best professional handicappers don’t have winning percentages much higher than 60 or 65 percent and even the best plays can lose, as evidenced from Week 13’s game between the Patriots and Eagles showed last year.
Considering you can lose 40 percent of the time and still be successful in this game, make sure you utilize bankroll management and don’t load up on one “lock play.” Spread your bankroll out for the entire season and read up on your research and you will have a solid NFL season.
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